By Chris De Beer – Infosource’s data shows weak growth of the Southern Africa copier and multifunction peripheral (MFP) markets in the full year of 2023 and the first half of 2024. But with signs that sales are picking up in South Africa, we forecast that there are better days to come in the second half of 2024 and beyond.
Looking back on the full year of 2023, MFP and copier unit sales in southern Africa dropped by 5,2% year-over-year (YoY). The first quarter of 2024 continued the trajectory, with sales falling 3,3% compared to the similar period in 2023. However, the second quarter marked a turnaround with 4,1% growth, resulting in 0,5% YoY growth for the first half (H1) of 2024.
The single function printer market continued its decline as consumers and businesses alike moved to multifunction devices. Office black-and-white copiers and MFPs printing 20-39 and 40-59 pages per minute still account for the lion’s share of unit sales. These categories accounted for four in ten copier/MFP shipments in H1 2024.
Black-and-white office printing bounces back
Drilling into our data, we find that the colour and black-and-white personal MFP segments declined a combined 20% in the full year of 2023. This might reflect a slowdown in spending on devices for work-from-home with more companies calling workers back to the office during late 2023 and early 2024 as well as softer spending by home businesses.
Following a 7,7% YoY decline in 2023, the black-and-white office printing market staged a comeback in H1 2024. This suggests commercial clients are renewing their fleets as employees return to the office, with a focus on more versatile and compact devices that reduce the need for traditional copiers and MFPs.
However, it’s also apparent that digital transformation is curtailing demand for paper-driven technologies. The increased use of cloud services and digital workflows appear to be making high-speed monochrome and low-end colour devices less necessary in the average workplace.
The office colour MFP market continued to hold up well, with higher speed commercial devices selling strongly. Colour’s share of the office unit sales expanded slightly in H1 2024. The 50 page-per-minute category surged 35%, indicating increased demand for marketing and visual materials that require high-quality colour prints.
Green shoots
The green shoots of growth in H1 will be encouraging for manufacturers, after an expected post-COVID-19 recovery failed to materialise in 2022 and 2023. The weak performance of the South African market—by far the largest economy in the SADC area – is a major reason why Southern Africa’s copier and MFP growth have disappointed in recent years.
Severe rolling blackouts from 2022 to 2024 dented South Africa’s economic prospects, adding to longstanding challenges such as logistics logjams, high unemployment, political instability and a volatile currency. These factors all hampered business investment – in turn, affecting spending on office automation technologies.
The picture has changed for the better. South Africa’s power utility, Eskom, has notched up more than 160 days without ‘load shedding’, addressing one of the country’s infrastructural constraints. Meanwhile, a peaceful election in May delivered a seemingly stable government of national unity, which is helping to rebuild business confidence.
With the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) expected to follow central banks around the world and start gently reducing interest rates in the third or fourth quarter, confidence and investment may get another bump. This could help to drive spending on consumer IT and office automation, including copiers and MFPs.
Positive growth in H2 and beyond
As we look ahead to H2 of 2024, Infosource maintains an optimistic outlook for growth for FY2024, with consumer MFP sales expected to pick up as we move into the Black Friday and festive season promotional periods.
In the longer term, we forecast that the MFP and copier market in southern Africa will maintain a compound annual growth rate of 3.6% between 2023 and 2027. However, beyond 2025, a transition towards digital solutions will accelerate decline in demand for traditional printing and copying equipment.
Brands that will thrive in this environment will be those that focus on niches where they have a competitive edge – such as compact, user-friendly devices that meet the needs of the home office or small business—or come to market with a comprehensive solution spanning managed services and digital workflows for corporate clients.
Chris De Beer is the regional manager at Infosource