My Esteemed Editor has done it again – he sometimes amazes me – and this time, over one of our regular coffees, he has used his astute foresight and ever-optimistic outlook on life to regale me on the enormous potential that the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) holds for the ICT industry.
In proposing a future feature (and a potential column for yours truly) he euphemistically describes such an AfCFTA story as a “One Africa” feature that will identify how ICT vendors, partners, and distributors can be positioned to play a vital role in support of companies across the continent – from Cape to Cairo – as they seek new business opportunities with one another and in different countries.
While there is little doubt that AfCFTA is one of the most ambitious economic integration efforts in modern history, its vision – based on the creation of a single, continent-wide market for goods and services – shows very little signs or hope of ever succeeding.
Since its establishment almost two years ago, the geopolitical situation across the continent has continued to be characterised by political instability, corruption, and competing global alliances.
The enormity of what AfCFTA sets out to promote and achieve is best illustrated by a very high-level situational analysis that reflects the reality on the ground.
According to statistics freely available in the public domain, intra-African trade remains stubbornly low, accounting for less than 15% of total African exports compared to 59% in Asia and 68% in Europe.
Some other facts that illustrate the enormity of the challenge facing Africa:
- Africa’s total GDP is less than 7% of Asia’s, despite having a comparable population size.
- Africa’s economic output is only just over 8% of Europe’s.
- North America and Europe together account for over 55% of global GDP, underscoring their continued economic dominance.
The reasons for these enormous discrepancies are not just economic – they are structural, political, and deeply entrenched.
Many African states are plagued by weak institutions, autocratic governance, and elite capture – and South Africa is high on the list of attaining and maintaining all these negative characteristics. In these environments, trade policy is often dictated by the interests of ruling parties or mafia-like gangs and not by national development goals.
Corruption distorts markets, discourages fair competition, and erodes investor confidence. Even basic infrastructure – roads, railways, ports – is often inadequate or mismanaged, making cross-border trade with immediate neighbours more expensive and less efficient than trading with distant partners in Europe or Asia.
Tribal and ethnic divisions further complicate the picture. In some countries, internal conflict undermines national cohesion, let alone regional cooperation. Trust between neighbouring states is fragile, and border disputes – some dating back to even before colonial demarcations – continue to simmer. These tensions make it difficult to harmonise regulations, enforce trade agreements, or build the kind of shared economic vision AfCFTA requires.
Then there’s the geopolitical reality. While AfCFTA aims to reduce Africa’s dependence on external powers, many African governments continue to seek economic lifelines from China and Russia. These relationships often come with strings attached – penalising loan terms, extractive infrastructure deals, and political influence that undermines democratic institutions.
At the same time, Africa’s alignment with these socialist and communist orientated powers risks alienating traditional Western partners like the US and the European Union whose markets and development aid remain vital to many African economies.
This geopolitical balancing act is not just a diplomatic challenge – it’s an economic one. Competing or conflicting alliances can fragment the continent’s trade priorities, dilute the impact of AfCFTA, and create parallel systems that undermine integration. If African countries are negotiating trade deals with Beijing and Moscow on one hand, and Brussels and Washington on the other, where does AfCFTA fit in?
Without deep political reform, institutional strengthening, and a genuine commitment to regional and continental solidarity, AfCFTA risks becoming a paper tiger – celebrated in conferences, but largely irrelevant to the daily realities of African businesses.
Against this background the ICT industry does, indeed, have a role to play and could, potentially, generate high growth in revenue and profitability in carefully selected countries and cross-border market sectors.
The fact that multinational companies are likely to be the key drivers of these opportunities and that their ICT systems will be heavily aligned with solutions and services supplied by vendors based primarily in the US could pose an interesting conundrum and could even “Trump” the way forward.