African Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) subscribers across nine operational markets are forecast to increase from about 7,9-million in 2025 to 39,6-million by 2030.
This is according to the newly published 2026 Africa MVNO Report by Africa Analysis Team, which assesses 54 African markets. The report finds that the continent’s MVNO opportunity is significant but remains at an early stage. Only nine markets currently support active MVNO operations, while 83% of the markets assessed have no active MVNO market.
Africa Analysis identifies 21 markets as High or Very High in MVNO attractiveness, based on a combination of market potential and execution readiness.
Africa does not lack mobile scale,” says Andre Wills, from the Africa Analysis team. “The continent already has close to 1,5-billion mobile subscriptions. The more important question is whether individual markets have the regulatory framework, wholesale economics, customer-switching mechanisms and digital infrastructure required to turn that scale into a sustainable MVNO opportunity.”
The report finds that 14 markets where MVNOs are permitted or licences have already been issued, but where no operational MVNO market exists, represent approximately 407-million mobile subscriptions. This indicates that regulatory permission alone is insufficient to create a viable MVNO ecosystem.
SA and Nigeria lead the 2030 opportunity
The report forecasts particularly strong growth in the largest emerging MVNO markets:
MVNO inside 1
By 2030, 85% of the subscriber base is expected to sit in South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Uganda.
Investable growth
According to the survey, four factors will determine where growth becomes investable:
MNP and switching – Effective, low-friction porting with clear implementation timelines and enforcement.
Licencing – Clear MVNO categories, proportionate obligations and executable licensing processes.
Wholesale access – Commercially sustainable pricing, reference offers, service levels and, where possible, multiple host-network options.
Digital readiness – Expanding 4G and 5G adoption, eSIM availability, affordable smartphones and digital customer onboarding.
African MVNO market definition
The 2026 Africa MVNO Report distinguishes between true MVNOs and branded resellers or on-billers.
Africa Analysis defines true MVNOs as operators that control the customer proposition, participate meaningfully in service and product development, and purchase wholesale mobile-network access. This approach avoids overstating African MVNO market maturity and competitive intensity by counting reseller brands as independent MVNO operations.
The report also examines the evolution from price-led MVNO 1.0 models through loyalty-led MVNO 2.0 propositions towards MVNO 3.0, where connectivity is increasingly embedded into banking, retail, insurance and digital ecosystems.
Market potential to investment readiness
Rather than ranking countries on market size alone, the report assesses the conditions required to convert theoretical potential into an executable market-entry case.
The analysis combines mobile-market development, network adoption and customer-switching indicators with a strategic assessment of licensing, wholesale economics, eSIM, competition and digital infrastructure.
The resulting framework enables mobile operators, prospective MVNOs, MVNEs, financial institutions, retailers, digital platforms, regulators and investors to identify where opportunities are emerging – and the market triggers that should be monitored before.