The memory and SSD crisis is real – and it’s broader and faster‑moving than many in the IT industry expect.
Craig Nowitz, CEO of Syntech.
This is the stark warning from Craig Nowitz, CEO of Syntech, who recently returned from the Hong Kong electronics shows and a week of factory visits in China.
Factory reality: Orders down, costs up
At first glance, global manufacturing appears to be slowing. Orders for PC components such as cases, coolers and power supplies are down sharply, in some instances by as much as 40% to 50%. Tablet and notebook manufacturers are also reporting declines, in some cases up to 30%.
“But that’s only part of the picture,” Nowitz says. “Lower demand isn’t translating into lower prices.”
He points out that manufacturers are still dealing with rising material and labour costs, while currency pressure continues to squeeze margins. At the same time, shifting trade dynamics and tariff changes are placing additional strain on already complex supply chains.
“The net effect is that costs are still moving up,” he says. “We’re seeing price increases of 10% to 20% across multiple categories, despite the drop in orders.”
Memory & SSD scarcity grows
Memory supply is tightening as previously hoarded stock begins to run out. OEMs and system integrators had been holding inventory, effectively masking shortages in the channel, while additional supply circulated through the open market.
“That’s starting to unwind now,” says Nowitz. “And the open market isn’t a long-term solution.”
As that inventory is absorbed, pricing is expected to align more closely with manufacturer increases, with availability tightening further.
At the same time, SSDs are now seeing sharper movement. While memory prices rose earlier, SSD pricing has accelerated quickly over the past quarter, catching parts of the market off guard.
A 1TB SSD that sold for around R1,000 a few months ago is now closer to R3,300, assuming stock is available. With NAND allocation increasingly focused on higher-margin segments, pressure on SSD supply is expected to build even faster.
CPU & GPU shortages cascade
The pressure is no longer limited to memory and storage. It is starting to ripple across the broader component market.
Intel shortages are expected to intensify as production shifts toward higher-margin segments, while AMD desktop CPUs remain constrained as capacity is prioritised for server-grade processors. GPU prices have also risen globally, although softer demand in some regions has slowed the pace.
“It’s a broader squeeze now,” says Nowitz.
South Africa has so far avoided the worst of the pricing seen in larger markets, with smaller volumes making allocations easier to secure.
“But that won’t last,” he says. “If upstream pressure continues, we’ll start to feel it locally as well.”
First impact: Consumer or B2B?
Larger B2B and government buyers are likely to feel the impact first.
Their purchasing requirements depend on securing significant volumes, which become harder to fulfil as supply tightens. Long-term pricing and supply commitments are also becoming less reliable.
Retail consumers may see the impact slightly later – but when it comes, increases are expected to be sharp, particularly for SSDs and higher-end memory.
What Syntech is doing now
Syntech is taking a multi-pronged approach to navigate the disruption and support its partners. This includes strengthening vendor relationships to secure allocations, while using open market sourcing to bridge short-term gaps.
At the same time, greater focus is being placed on forecasting and analytics to improve planning, alongside diversification efforts to unlock new revenue streams.
“Above all, it comes down to communication,” Nowitz says. “If our partners understand where pricing and supply are going, they’re in a much better position to manage their own customers’ expectations.”
Advice to our partners
- Plan inventory proactively. Build scenarios and order earlier.
- Diversify SKUs and services. Focus on configuration, support, and value-add.
- Source locally where possible. Use deals and older-priced stock for short-term relief.
- Prepare for sharper B2B impact. Model price and lead-time risk on large deals.
“This is not a short-term disruption,” says Nowitz. “It’s a shift in how supply is prioritised globally. The channel needs to plan for that reality.”