For many in the IT channel, the conversation at the start of 2026 seems all too familiar.
By Guy Whitcroft
Supply constraints, unpredictable lead times, volatile currencies, shipping issues, and customers who still want certainty on pricing and delivery. Add geopolitical tension and cautious corporate spending and the natural reaction is to assume this is simply another difficult cycle.
But there is an important shift taking place.
What used to be a disruption has become the normal operating environment.
Over the past few years, businesses have waited for conditions to normalise. The expectation has been that once shortages ease and costs stabilise, planning can return to predictable patterns. The problem is that stability seems as far away as ever. Instead, we are seeing rolling instability. Something is always moving: exchange rates, component availability, demand patterns, or regulatory pressure.
In that kind of environment, the biggest risk is not volatility itself. It is managing the business as though volatility is temporary.
Many channel businesses still make decisions as if certainty will soon return. They hold pricing too long waiting for cost clarity, delay structural changes because the situation is “abnormal”, or keep leadership tightly centralised because conditions feel too risky to delegate.
Ironically, those reactions increase risk.
When uncertainty persists, speed of judgement becomes more valuable than precision of prediction. The winners are not those who forecast perfectly, but those who adjust fastest.
This changes how a channel business should be led.
Firstly, planning cycles need to shorten. Annual plans remain useful directionally, but operational assumptions must be revisited continuously. The question shifts from “What is our plan?” to “What has changed since last month that affects our decisions?”
Secondly, pricing discipline becomes a leadership skill rather than an accounting exercise. Customers generally tolerate adjustment when it is consistent and explained early. What they struggle with is sudden correction after a period of apparent stability.
Thirdly, decision-making must move closer to the customer. In volatile conditions, central approval structures slow response times to the point where opportunities disappear or risks compound before action is taken.
Finally, leaders need to change their mindset. Instead of trying to remove uncertainty, they must build organisations that function inside it. Processes, authority levels, and communication rhythms should assume constant movement rather than occasional disruption.
2026 is unlikely to be the year stability returns to the channel. It may instead be the year we accept that pressure is no longer an exception to manage through, but a permanent feature to manage within.
Businesses that continue waiting for what used to be normal to return will remain cautious and reactive. Those that redesign how they operate around ongoing change will find they are calmer, faster and, ultimately, more profitable.
More practical leadership insights for SME and channel business owners can be found at www.businessfitness.biz/blog
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